Вопросы вирусологии. 2021; 66: 299-309
Популяционный иммунитет к SARS-CoV-2 населения Новосибирской области на фоне пандемии COVID-19
https://doi.org/10.36233/0507-4088-54Аннотация
Цель. Определить уровень серопревалентности SARS-CoV-2 среди населения Новосибирской области на фоне пандемии COVID-19.
Материалы и методы. Работу проводили в 2 фазы: 1) поперечное когортное исследование выполняли с 28.06. по 15.07.2020 г.; 2) продольный когортный 3-этапный серомониторинг: 1-й этап 28.06–15.07.2020 г., 2-й – 14.09–04.10.2020 г., 3-й – 10–30.12.2020 г. Работу проводили по единой методике, разработанной Роспотребнадзором при участии НИИЭМ им. Пастера с учетом рекомендаций ВОЗ. Содержание антител IgG к нуклеокапсиду SARS-CoV-2 определяли методом ИФА с использованием набора реагентов производства ГНЦПМиБ (г. Оболенск) по инструкции производителя. Статистический анализ проводили с помощью Microsoft Excel 2010 и других программ.
Результаты. Серопревалентность населения области составила 9,1% (95% ДИ 8,0–10,2): максимум у детей 14–17 лет (17,6%; 95% ДИ 12,3–23,9) и лиц в возрасте 75+ лет (14,8%; 95% ДИ 11,4–18,8), минимум – среди лиц в возрасте 30–39 лет (4,9%; 95% ДИ 3,0–8,0). Повышенные показатели отмечены у неработающих (15,4%; 95% ДИ 9,9–17,1) и прочих лиц (13,0%; 95% ДИ 8,6–18,5). Среди реконвалесцентов COVID-19 она была равной 33,3% (95% ДИ 16,3–59,0); у контактных лиц – 19,0% (95% ДИ 13,9–25,0). Более 94,7% (95% ДИ 91,2–97,2) серопозитивных лиц не имели манифестных проявлений. При серологическом мониторинге серопревалентность увеличивалась от 7,4% (95% ДИ 6,2–8,9) на 1-м этапе до 12,4% (95% ДИ 10,6–14,3) на 2-м и 31% (95% ДИ 28,8–33,3) – на 3-м этапах.
Заключение. Популяционный иммунитет к SARS-CoV-2 не достиг порогового уровня, что не исключает обострения эпидемического процесса.
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Problems of Virology. 2021; 66: 299-309
Herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2 in the Novosibirsk Region population amid the COVID-19 pandemic
https://doi.org/10.36233/0507-4088-54Abstract
Aim. To determine the level of SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence among the Novosibirsk Region population against the background of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Material and methods. The work was carried out in 2 phases: 1) a cross-sectional cohort study performed 28.06– 15.07.2020; 2) longitudinal cohort 3-stage seromonitoring: 1st stage 28.06–15.07.2020; 2nd 14.09–04.10.2020; 3rd 10–30.12.2020 The work was carried out according to a unified methodology developed by Rospotrebnadzor with the participation of St-Petersburg Pasteur Institute, taking into account the recommendations of the WHO. IgG antibodies to the SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid protein were detected by ELISA using a kit of reagents produced by the SRCMSB (Obolensk) according to the manufacturer’s instructions. Statistical analysis was performed using Microsoft Excel 2010 and other programs.
Results. The seroprevalence in the region’s population was 9.1% (95% CI 8.0–10.2): maximum in children 14–17 years old (17.6%, 95% CI 12.3–23.9) and persons over 75 years (14.8%, 95% CI 11.4–18.8), minimum among persons 30–39 years old (4.9%, 95% CI 3.0–8.0). Increased rate was noted among the unemployed (15.4%, 95% CI 9.9–17.1) and other individuals (13.0%, 95% CI 8.6–18.5). Seroprevalence was 33.3% (95% CI 16.3–59.0) in COVID-19 convalescents and 19.0% (95% CI 13.9-25.0) in contact persons. More than 94.7% (95% CI 91.2–97.2) of seropositive individuals were asymptomatic. During the serological monitoring, seroprevalence increased from 7.4% (95% CI 6.2–8.9) at 1st stage 1 to 12.4% (95% CI 10.6–14.3) at 2nd , and 31% (95% CI 28.8–33.3) at 3rd stage.
Conclusion. SARS-CoV-2 herd immunity has not reached the threshold level, this does not exclude exacerbation of the epidemic process.
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