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Современные экономические процессы. 2021; 1: 4-27

Новые вызовы для международной торговли

Кербер Леонид Сергеевич, Шарипов Ринат Николаевич, Сидоров Алексей Александрович

https://doi.org/10.55030/2713-0266-2021-1-3-4-27

Аннотация

Целью статьи является выявление различных экономических, социальных, эпидемиологических и геополитических факторов, способных в значительной степени повлиять на мировую торговлю в краткосрочной и долгосрочной перспективах. В качестве методов исследования в данной работе использовался метод анализа, метод дедукции и классификации. В результате исследования удалось рассмотреть и проанализировать ряд таких значимых факторов развития международной торговли, как торговые конфликты, появление мегарегиональных торговых соглашений, распространение новой коронавирусной инфекции и цифровизация мировой экономики.
Список литературы

1. Aaronson, S. A. (November 14, 2018) Data Is Different: Why the World Needs a New Approach to Governing Cross-border Data Flows. Centre for International Governance and Innovation. CIGI Paper No. 197. URL: https://www.cigionline.org/sites/default/files/documents/paper%20no.197_0.pdf.

2. Bianchi, F., Bianchi, G., & Song, D. (December, 2020) The Long-Term Impact of the COVID-19 Unemployment Shock on Life Expectancy and Mortality Rates. Working paper Number 28304. National Bureau of Economic Research. Revised : January, 2021. URL: https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w28304/w28304.pdf.

3. Chivot, E. & Castro, D. (May 13, 2019) The EU Needs to Reform the GDPR to Remain Competitive in the Algorithmic Economy. Center for Data Innovation. URL: https://datainnovation.org/2019/05/the-eu-needs-to-reform-the-gdpr-to-remain-competitive-in-the-algorithmic-economy/.

4. Fefer, R. F., Akhtar, S. I., & Morrison, W. M. (May 21, 2019) Digital Trade and U.S. Trade Policy. Congressional Research Service. URL: https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R44565.pdf.

5. Konings, J. (November 17, 2020) International trade in 2021: Plenty of challenges, but recovery in sight. Global Macro Outlook 2021: The darkness before the dawn. ING. URL: https://think.ing.com/bundles/global-macro-outlook-2021-the-darkest-hour-is-just-before-dawn.

6. Lee-Makiyama, H. (2017) Expanding Digital Protectionism & Impact on Business. European Centre for International Political Economy. URL: https://ecipe.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECIPE-for-METI-JETRO-3.pdf.

7. Lund, S., Manyika, J., Woetzel, J., Bughin, J., Krishnan, M., Seong, J., & Muir, M. (January 16, 2019) Globalization in transition: The future of trade and value chains. McKinsey Global Institute. URL: https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/innovation-and-growth/globalization-in-transition-the-future-of-trade-and-value-chains#.

8. Manning, R. A. (June, 2020) Trade and Financial Fragmentation: New Challenges to Global Stability. Atlantic Council. URL: https://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep26007.

9. Manyika, J., Chui, M., Bisson, P., Woetzel, J., Dobbs, R., Bughin, J., & Aharon, D. (June, 2015) The Internet of Things: Mapping the Value Beyond the Hype. McKinsey Global Institute. URL: https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Industries/Technology%20Media%20and%20Telecommunications/High%20Tech/Our%20Insights/The%20Internet%20of%20Things%20The%20value%20of%20digitizing%20the%20physical%20world/Unlocking_the_potential_of_the_Internet_of_Things_Executive_summary.pdf.

10. Manyika, J., Lund, S., Bughin, J., Woetzel, J., Stamenov, K., & Dhingra, D. (24 February, 2016) Digital Globalization: The New Era of Global Flows. McKinsey Global Institute. URL: https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/mckinsey-digital/our-insights/digital-globalization-the-new-era-of-global-flows.

Current Economic Trends. 2021; 1: 4-27

New Challenges to International Trade System

Kerber Leonid S., Sharipov Rinat N., Sidorov Alexey A.

https://doi.org/10.55030/2713-0266-2021-1-3-4-27

Abstract

The purpose of the article is to identify various economic, social, epidemiological, and geopolitical factors that can significantly affect the international trade in the short and long terms. The methods of research applied in this work include analysis, deduction and classifying. As a result of the study, the authors examined and analyzed a number of significant factors contributing to the development of international trade. Those include trade conflicts, the emergence of mega-regional trade agreements, the spread of a new coronavirus infection, and the digitalization of the global economy.

References

1. Aaronson, S. A. (November 14, 2018) Data Is Different: Why the World Needs a New Approach to Governing Cross-border Data Flows. Centre for International Governance and Innovation. CIGI Paper No. 197. URL: https://www.cigionline.org/sites/default/files/documents/paper%20no.197_0.pdf.

2. Bianchi, F., Bianchi, G., & Song, D. (December, 2020) The Long-Term Impact of the COVID-19 Unemployment Shock on Life Expectancy and Mortality Rates. Working paper Number 28304. National Bureau of Economic Research. Revised : January, 2021. URL: https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w28304/w28304.pdf.

3. Chivot, E. & Castro, D. (May 13, 2019) The EU Needs to Reform the GDPR to Remain Competitive in the Algorithmic Economy. Center for Data Innovation. URL: https://datainnovation.org/2019/05/the-eu-needs-to-reform-the-gdpr-to-remain-competitive-in-the-algorithmic-economy/.

4. Fefer, R. F., Akhtar, S. I., & Morrison, W. M. (May 21, 2019) Digital Trade and U.S. Trade Policy. Congressional Research Service. URL: https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R44565.pdf.

5. Konings, J. (November 17, 2020) International trade in 2021: Plenty of challenges, but recovery in sight. Global Macro Outlook 2021: The darkness before the dawn. ING. URL: https://think.ing.com/bundles/global-macro-outlook-2021-the-darkest-hour-is-just-before-dawn.

6. Lee-Makiyama, H. (2017) Expanding Digital Protectionism & Impact on Business. European Centre for International Political Economy. URL: https://ecipe.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/ECIPE-for-METI-JETRO-3.pdf.

7. Lund, S., Manyika, J., Woetzel, J., Bughin, J., Krishnan, M., Seong, J., & Muir, M. (January 16, 2019) Globalization in transition: The future of trade and value chains. McKinsey Global Institute. URL: https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/innovation-and-growth/globalization-in-transition-the-future-of-trade-and-value-chains#.

8. Manning, R. A. (June, 2020) Trade and Financial Fragmentation: New Challenges to Global Stability. Atlantic Council. URL: https://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep26007.

9. Manyika, J., Chui, M., Bisson, P., Woetzel, J., Dobbs, R., Bughin, J., & Aharon, D. (June, 2015) The Internet of Things: Mapping the Value Beyond the Hype. McKinsey Global Institute. URL: https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Industries/Technology%20Media%20and%20Telecommunications/High%20Tech/Our%20Insights/The%20Internet%20of%20Things%20The%20value%20of%20digitizing%20the%20physical%20world/Unlocking_the_potential_of_the_Internet_of_Things_Executive_summary.pdf.

10. Manyika, J., Lund, S., Bughin, J., Woetzel, J., Stamenov, K., & Dhingra, D. (24 February, 2016) Digital Globalization: The New Era of Global Flows. McKinsey Global Institute. URL: https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/mckinsey-digital/our-insights/digital-globalization-the-new-era-of-global-flows.