Журнал микробиологии, эпидемиологии и иммунобиологии. 2020; 97: 15-18
Модель профилактической эффективности противогриппозной вакцины с поправкой на гипотезу антигенного расстояния
https://doi.org/10.36233/0372-9311-2020-97-1-15-18Аннотация
Цель исследования — найти количественную взаимосвязь антигенных расстояний (AD) с эффективностью вакцины (VE) и исследовать чувствительность VE к изменению AD.
Материал и методы. С помощью данных эпидемиологических наблюдений за тремя сезонами по гриппу в Канаде с интерпретацией в рамках гипотезы антигенного расстояния (ADH) обосновывается введение поправочного множителя в модель для оценки VE. Поправка учитывает наличие антигенной взаимосвязи между вакциной предыдущего сезона (V1), вакциной текущего сезона (V2) и циркулирующим эпидемическим штаммом (е).
Результаты. Найдена количественная взаимосвязь VE с AD, воспроизводящая результаты эпидемиологических наблюдений за двумя группами лиц: одна — только с текущей вакцинацией (0+V2), другая — с предшествующей и текущей (V1+V2) вакцинациями. Выявлено различие в чувствительности VE к разным показателям AD, позволяющее ограничиться ведущим показателем.
Заключение. Предложенная модель соотносит микробиологические показатели AD с эпидемиологической характеристикой VE. Модель расширяет анализ, позволяя использовать ее как средство оценки ожидаемых изменений VE в разных постановках эксперимента по проверке гипотезы ADH.
Список литературы
1. Hoskins T.W., Davies J.R., Smith A.J., Miller C.L., Allchin A. Assessment of inactivated influenza-A vaccine after three outbreaks of influenza A at Christ’s Hospital. Lancet. 1979; 1(8106): 33-5. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(79)90468-9
2. Bartoszko J.J., McNamara I.F., Aras OA.Z., Hylton D.A., Zhang Y.B., Malhotra D., et al. Does consecutive influenza vaccination reduce protection against influenza: Asystematic review and meta-analysis. Vaccine. 2018; 36(24): 3434-44. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2018.04.049
3. Beyer W.E., de Bruijn I.A., Palache A.M., Westendorp R.G., Osterhaus A.D. Protection against influenza after annually repeated vaccination: a meta-analysis of serologic and field studies. Arch. Intern. Med. 1999; 159(2): 182-8. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1001/archinte.159.2.182
4. Keitel W.A., Cate T.R., Couch R.B., Huggins L.L., Hess K.R. Efficacy of repeated annual immunization with inactivated influenza virus vaccines over a five year period. Vaccine. 1997; 15(10): 1114-22. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1016/s0264-410x(97)00003-0
5. Szilagyi P.G., Fairbrother G., Griffin M.R., Hornung R.W., Donauer S., Morrow A., et al. Influenza vaccine effectiveness among children 6 to 59 months of age during 2 influenza seasons: a casecohort study. Arch. Pediatr. Adolesc. Med. 2008; 162(10): 943-51. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1001/archpedi.162.10.943
6. Smith D.J., Forrest S., Ackley D.H., Perelson A.S. Variable efficacy of repeated annual influenza vaccination. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA. 1999; 96(24): 14001-6. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.96.24.14001
7. Skowronski D.M., Chambers C., De Serres G., Sabaiduc S., Winter A.L., Dickinson J.A., et al. Serial vaccination and the antigenic distance hypothesis: effects on influenza vaccine effectiveness during A(H3N2) epidemics in Canada, 2010-2011 to 2014-2015. J. Infect. Dis. 2017; 215(7): 1059-99. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1093/infdis/jix074
8. Kim J.H., Davis W.G., Sambhara S., Jacob J. Strategies to alleviate original antigenic sin responses to influenza viruses. PNAS. 2012, 109(34): 13751-8. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0912458109
Journal of microbiology, epidemiology and immunobiology. 2020; 97: 15-18
Model of Prophylactic Efficiency of Influenza Virus Vaccine Corrected to the Antigenic Distance Hypothesis
https://doi.org/10.36233/0372-9311-2020-97-1-15-18Abstract
The aim of the study is to find a quantitative relationship between antigenic distances (AD) and vaccination effectiveness (VE) and investigate the response of VE to changes in AD.
Material and methods. Through the epidemiological data of three influenza seasons in Canada, interpreted within the framework of the antigenic distance hypothesis (ADH), the introduction of the correction factor into the model for estimating VE was substantiated considering the antigenic relationship between the previous season vaccine (V1), the current season vaccine (V2) and the circulating epidemic strain (e).
Results. A quantitative relationship between VE and AD was found, reproducing the results of epidemiological observation of two groups of people: vaccinated in the previous and current seasons (V1+V2) and vaccinated only in the current season (0+V2). The difference in the response of VE to different indicators of AD was found and allowing to use only one significant indicator.
Conclusion. Тhe model proposed relates the microbiological indicators AD with epidemiological characteristic of VE. The model extends the analysis, allowing to use it as an assessment tool for the expected changes in vaccine effectiveness in various settings of the ADH hypothesis experiment.
References
1. Hoskins T.W., Davies J.R., Smith A.J., Miller C.L., Allchin A. Assessment of inactivated influenza-A vaccine after three outbreaks of influenza A at Christ’s Hospital. Lancet. 1979; 1(8106): 33-5. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(79)90468-9
2. Bartoszko J.J., McNamara I.F., Aras OA.Z., Hylton D.A., Zhang Y.B., Malhotra D., et al. Does consecutive influenza vaccination reduce protection against influenza: Asystematic review and meta-analysis. Vaccine. 2018; 36(24): 3434-44. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2018.04.049
3. Beyer W.E., de Bruijn I.A., Palache A.M., Westendorp R.G., Osterhaus A.D. Protection against influenza after annually repeated vaccination: a meta-analysis of serologic and field studies. Arch. Intern. Med. 1999; 159(2): 182-8. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1001/archinte.159.2.182
4. Keitel W.A., Cate T.R., Couch R.B., Huggins L.L., Hess K.R. Efficacy of repeated annual immunization with inactivated influenza virus vaccines over a five year period. Vaccine. 1997; 15(10): 1114-22. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1016/s0264-410x(97)00003-0
5. Szilagyi P.G., Fairbrother G., Griffin M.R., Hornung R.W., Donauer S., Morrow A., et al. Influenza vaccine effectiveness among children 6 to 59 months of age during 2 influenza seasons: a casecohort study. Arch. Pediatr. Adolesc. Med. 2008; 162(10): 943-51. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1001/archpedi.162.10.943
6. Smith D.J., Forrest S., Ackley D.H., Perelson A.S. Variable efficacy of repeated annual influenza vaccination. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA. 1999; 96(24): 14001-6. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.96.24.14001
7. Skowronski D.M., Chambers C., De Serres G., Sabaiduc S., Winter A.L., Dickinson J.A., et al. Serial vaccination and the antigenic distance hypothesis: effects on influenza vaccine effectiveness during A(H3N2) epidemics in Canada, 2010-2011 to 2014-2015. J. Infect. Dis. 2017; 215(7): 1059-99. DOI: http://doi.org/10.1093/infdis/jix074
8. Kim J.H., Davis W.G., Sambhara S., Jacob J. Strategies to alleviate original antigenic sin responses to influenza viruses. PNAS. 2012, 109(34): 13751-8. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0912458109
