Морской гидрофизический журнал. 2023; 39: 448-466
Тенденции и региональные особенности изменчивости термических условий северо-восточной части Тихого океана севернее 30° с. ш. в последние четыре десятилетия
https://doi.org/10.22449/0233-7584-2023-4-Аннотация
Цель. Выявить региональные особенности современных климатических изменений температуры воды в северо-восточной части внетропической зоны Тихого океана, оценить характеристики температурных трендов на поверхности и в верхнем слое океана и их связи с крупномасштабными процессами в океане и атмосфере – цель настоящей работы.
Методы и результаты. На основе климатических массивов NOAA c использованием статистических методов анализа и аппарата эмпирических ортогональных функций определены характеристики межгодовой изменчивости температуры воды на поверхности и в верхнем 1000-метровом слое различных районов исследуемой акватории. Дана количественная оценка температурных трендов, корреляционных связей с влияющими факторами и их статистической значимости для отдельных 20-летних периодов последних 40 лет.
Выводы. В первые десятилетия XXI в. тренды потепления явно выражены на поверхности и в верхнем 200-метровом слое северо-восточного и центрального районов акватории. По сравнению с предшествующим 20-летним периодом величина положительных трендов ТПО в среднем по всей акватории увеличилась примерно в 4 раза. За последние два десятилетия теплосодержание верхнего 200-метрового слоя увеличилось на 5 %, а всего 1000-метрового – на 2 %, что
в 1,5 раза меньше, чем в северо-западном секторе внетропической зоны Тихого океана, где в отличие от поверхности потепление толщи вод проходило более высокими темпами. В целом по исследуемому району корреляционные связи колебаний теплосодержания верхнего 200-метрового слоя океана с изменениями влияющих факторов проявляются через климатические индексы NPGO, PDO, NP, PNA, SOI, AD и градиенты атмосферного давления между ведущими центрами действия атмосферы.
Список литературы
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Morskoy Gidrofizicheskiy Zhurnal. 2023; 39: 448-466
Trends and regional features of variability of the northeast Pacific Ocean thermal conditions north of 30° N over the last four decades
https://doi.org/10.22449/0233-7584-2023-4-Abstract
Purpose. The study is purposed at revealing the regional features of modern climatic changes in water temperature in the northeastern extratropical zone of the Pacific Ocean, at assessing the characteristics
of temperature trends on the ocean surface and in its upper layer and their relationship with the largescale processes in the ocean and atmosphere.
Methods and Results. Based on the NOAA climatic data sets, and using the statistical methods of analysis and the apparatus of empirical orthogonal functions, the characteristics of the interannual variability of water temperature on the surface and in the upper 1000-meter layer were determined in different regions of the area under study. Temperature trends, correlations with the influencing factors and their statistical significance for some 20-year periods of previous 40 years were quantitatively assessed.
Conclusions. In the first decades of the 21st century, the warming trends are explicit on the surface and in the upper 200-meter layer of the northeastern and central regions of the area. As compared to the previous 20-year period, the magnitude of positive SST trends increased, on average, by about 4 times over the entire water area. In course of the past two decades, the heat content of the upper 200-meter layer increased by 5 % and that of the whole 1000-meter layer – by 2 %, which is 1.5 times less than in the northwestern sector of the Pacific extratropical zone where, unlike the surface, the rate of water column warming was higher. As for the area under study, on the whole, the correlations between the heat content fluctuations in the upper 200-meter ocean layer and the changes in influencing factors are manifested through the climatic indices NPGO, PDO, NP, PNA, SOI, AD and the atmospheric pressure gradients between the leading centers of the atmosphere action.
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