Морской гидрофизический журнал. 2023; 39: 342-358
Оценка эффективности экспресс-метода оперативного прогноза на примерах перуанского (2007 года), чилийских (2010, 2014 и 2015 годов) цунами
https://doi.org/10.29039/0233-7584-2023-3-342-358Аннотация
Цель. Целью работы является изучение возможности оперативного прогнозирования цунами в условиях реального времени по данным глубоководных станций измерения уровня океана.
Методы и результаты. Экспресс-метод позволяет заблаговременно рассчитывать волновые формы ожидаемого цунами в океане, а также вблизи побережья. Для прогнозирования требуется сейсмологическая информация только о времени начала и координатах эпицентра землетрясения и данные одной станции измерения уровня океана, получаемые в режиме реального времени. В численных экспериментах использовались данные ближайших к очагам цунами глубоководных станций измерения уровня океана длительностью, равной первому полупериоду (первому периоду) цунами. Результаты расчета цунами 2007–2015 гг. достаточно хорошо совпадают с формами цунами, зарегистрированными глубоководными станциями в океане в различных направлениях от очага. Качество расчетов сопоставимо с качеством расчетов других авторов. Прогноз цунами в заданных точках возможен сразу после получения информации о прохождении первой волны цунами через ближайшую к очагу глубоководную станцию.
Выводы. В отличие от других способов, экспресс-метод не нуждается в построении сейсмического источника, не требует гигантской базы синтетических мареограмм. Экспресс-метод может применяться для прогноза цунами в тех областях, для которых другие способы не применимы (например, отсутствуют базы синтетических мареограмм). Такими областями являются побережья северо-западной части Тихого океана.
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Morskoy Gidrofizicheskiy Zhurnal. 2023; 39: 342-358
Evaluation of the Express Method Effectiveness in Short-Term Forecasting on the Examples of the Peruvian (2007) and the Chilean (2010, 2014 and 2015) Tsunamis
https://doi.org/10.29039/0233-7584-2023-3-342-358Abstract
Purpose. The aim of the work is to study the possibility of real-time tsunami forecasting based on the data from the deep-ocean tsunameters.
Methods and Results. The express method makes it possible to compute in advance the waveforms of the expected tsunami in the ocean, as well as near the coast. Forecasting requires seismological information on the start time and coordinates of the earthquake epicenter only, and also the data from one deep-ocean tsunameter obtained in real time. The data from the deep-ocean tsunameters closest to the tsunami sources with the duration equal to the tsunami first half-period (the first period) were used in the numerical experiments. The results of computing tsumamis for 2007–2015 agree quite well with the tsunami forms recorded at the deep-sea stations in the ocean in different directions from the source. The quality of computations in the article is comparable to the computation quality of the other authors. A tsunami forecast at the given points is possible immediately after receiving the information on passing of the tsunami first period through the deep-sea tsunameter closest to the source.
Conclusions. In contrast to the other methods, no reconstructing of a seismic source neither a giant base of synthetic mareograms is required for the express method. The express method can be used for tsunami forecasting in those areas for which other methods are not applicable (for example, there is no a database of synthetic mareograms), namely the coast of the northwestern Pacific Ocean.
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