Морской гидрофизический журнал. 2024; 40: 386-401
Тенденции межгодовой изменчивости поля солености верхнего 1000-метрового слоя северо-восточной части Тихого океана в условиях современного глобального потепления
Аннотация
Цель. Определить тенденции и региональные особенности межгодовых изменений солености и солесодержания в верхнем 1000-метровом слое внетропической зоны северо-восточной части Тихого океана и дать анализ их возможных причинно-следственных связей с крупномасштабными и региональными процессами в океане и атмосфере за два последних десятилетия современного периода глобального потепления.
Методы и результаты. Использовались данные климатических массивов NOAA, включающие систему усвоения океанографических наблюдений GODAS в узлах регулярной сетки, данные по количеству атмосферных осадков и ряды климатических индексов. Были взяты среднемесячные данные реанализа ERA5 по осадкам и испарению с подстилающей поверхности. Применялись методы кластерного, корреляционного, регрессионного анализа и аппарата эмпирических ортогональных функций. В результате исследований определены региональные пространственно-временные особенности изменений солености и солесодержания в толще вод верхних 1000 м исследуемого региона в условиях современной фазы потепления, сопровождающегося интенсификацией глобального гидрологического цикла. Дана оценка количественных характеристик отмеченных тенденций и их статистической значимости.
Выводы. Пространственное распределение трендов значений разности испарение-осадки (E-P) демонстрирует преобладающий характер испарения на большей части акватории, что отличается от глобальных тенденций гидрологического цикла в средних и высоких широтах Северного полушария, особенно за предшествующий период. В целом по региону наблюдался статистически значимый положительный тренд солесодержания в верхней 1000-метровой толще вод северного района, а в других районах и в среднем по акватории в этом слое наблюдались небольшие статистически не значимые отрицательные тренды. Корреляционные связи изменений среднегодовых значений солености и солесодержания с различными крупномасштабными, региональными процессами и климатическими переменными наиболее выражены через следующие параметры: климатические индексы NPGO, IPO, PDO, AD, первую моду ЭОФ колебаний значений PC1 разности испарение-осадки (E-P) и вторую моду ЭОФ аномалии геопотенциала изобарической поверхности AT500.
Список литературы
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Morskoy Gidrofizicheskiy Zhurnal. 2024; 40: 386-401
Trends in the Interannual Variability of Salinity Field in the Upper 1000-Meter Layer of the Northeastern Pacific Ocean under Conditions of Modern Global Warming
Abstract
Purpose. The study is purposed at determining the trends and the regional features of interannual changes in salinity and salt content in the upper 1000-m layer of the extratropical zone in the northeastern Pacific Ocean, and at analyzing their possible cause-and-effect relations with the large-scale and regional processes in the ocean and atmosphere over the last two decades of the current period of global warming.
Methods and Results. The NOAA climate data sets including the GODAS oceanographic data assimilation system in the nodes of a regular grid, as well as the data on the amount of atmospheric precipitation and the series of climate indices were used in the study. The monthly average ERA5 reanalysis data on precipitation and evaporation from the underlying surface were also applied. The methods of cluster, correlation and regression analysis, as well as the apparatus of empirical orthogonal functions were involved. The conducted research resulted in identifying the regional spatial and temporal features of the changes in salinity and salt content in the upper 1000-m water column of the study area under conditions of the current warming phase accompanied by the intensification of global and local hydrological cycles. The quantitative characteristics of the noted trends and their statistical significance were assessed.
Conclusions. The spatial distribution of evaporation-precipitation (E-P) difference trends demonstrates a predominant evaporation pattern over most of the water area that differs from the global trends in a hydrological cycle in the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, especially over the previous period. In general, a statistically significant positive trend in salt content was observed in the upper 1000 m of water column in the northern area, whereas in the other regions and on the average over the whole water area, small statistically insignificant negative trends were noted in the above mentioned layer. The correlation relations between the changes in average annual salinity and salt content values, on the one hand, and different large-scale regional processes and climate variables, on the other hand, are most manifested through the following parameters: climate indices NPGO, IPO, PDO and AD, the first mode of EOF of fluctuations in the PC1 values of evaporation-precipitation (E-P) difference, and the second mode of EOF of anomaly of the isobaric surface AT500 geopotential.
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